Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc526…9e65 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%23W / 41L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$3
world 35% +$5
sports 11% −$5
politics 4% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 3% -9.4%
all 64 -0.5% -9.9% 36% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage296d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $143 −$6 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $113 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $152 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $78 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $188 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $73 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $127 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $137 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $8 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $304 +$1 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $36 +$3 +8%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $657 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $597 +$2 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $7 −$1 -9%
Bowling vs. UMass Dec 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $5 +$2 +45%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 03 $31 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $92 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $91 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $91 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $109 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $109 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $98 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $78 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $109 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $109 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $3 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $76 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $78 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $99 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $98 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.67 · official $91.68 (match) · 285 history records