Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc527…f7fb crypto 1079 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized −$379 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate70%772W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day67.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$419
7 days−$401
14 days−$543
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 634 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 38% -13.5%
≤30d 1045 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 24% -11.2%
≤90d 1102 -3.3% -12.5% 70% 23% -11.1%
all 1102 -3.3% -12.5% 70% 23% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 23% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 15% -19.6%
15% -28.5% 9% -27.4%
20% -35.5% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses772 / 330
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1102 / 1079
History coverage39d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day67.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$16 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $0 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records