Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C5 0xc528…3545 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$151 (-7%) realized −$124 · open −$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate41%11W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$104

7 days−$47

14 days−$47

30 days−$47

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)-20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-11.9%	-20.3%	41%	37%	-12.0%
≤30d	27	-11.9%	-20.3%	41%	37%	-12.0%
≤90d	27	-11.9%	-20.3%	41%	37%	-12.0%
all	27	-11.9%	-20.3%	41%	37%	-12.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.3%	37%	-12.0%
10%	-28.0%	33%	-20.4%
15%	-34.9%	19%	-28.1%
20%	-41.3%	19%	-35.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -32% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$43 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.93 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$364

Realized−$124

Unrealized−$27

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses11 / 16

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions3

Markets (closed)27 / 30

History coverage8d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$190	$172	−$18 (-10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Ilia Topuria	81¢	80¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	51¢	48¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$50	+$17	+34%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$101	+$26	+26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$111	+$27	+24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	Jun 15	$91	+$20	+23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$41	+$102	+249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$262	+$7	+3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$14	+$63	+442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$25	−$25	-99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$14	−$14	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$81	+$48	+59%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$18	−$17	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$40	−$39	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$201	−$200	-99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$77	−$75	-98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$66	+$163	+246%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$67	−$65	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$38	−$37	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$97	+$153	+158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$61	−$60	-98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 11	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$100	+$14	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	81¢	$101	7m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$67	9m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	SELL Sean OMalley	100¢	$126	29m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$101	35m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Josh Hokit	100¢	$137	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Sean OMalley	79¢	$101	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Josh Hokit	80¢	$111	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	SELL Mauricio Ruffy	100¢	$111	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	74¢	$50	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	BUY Mauricio Ruffy	81¢	$91	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Kyle Daukaus	25¢	$10	3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$20	4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$143	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$20	8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$41	8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$41	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$138	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$131	12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$131	12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$131	22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	22h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$25	24h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$14	24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$14	24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$129	24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	27h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$81	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.59 · official $363.59 (match) · 54 history records