Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc52a…4885 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$90 (+18%) realized +$91 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$68
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$76
other 46% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.8% +19.2% 75% 75% +15.5%
≤30d 14 +27.9% +15.7% 57% 57% +9.8%
≤90d 14 +27.9% +15.7% 57% 57% +9.8%
all 14 +27.9% +15.7% 57% 57% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 57% +9.8%
10% +4.6% 50% -0.7%
15% -5.5% 36% -10.3%
20% -14.7% 36% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage10d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $116 +$38 +32%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$27 +134%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 75¢ $116 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $20 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $20 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $10 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $18 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 10d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $20 10d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.33 · official $99.33 (match) · 26 history records