Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc533…19f5 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$7
other 25% $0
crypto 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.3% -15.2% 17% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 21 -2.2% -11.5% 19% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 21 -2.2% -11.5% 19% 5% -10.3%
all 30 -1.4% -10.7% 33% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 7% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage476d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $9 −$3 -36%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $113 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bybit buy >$1b ETH by next Friday? May 20 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $0 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $4 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $18 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $17 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $38 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $38 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $40 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $40 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.93 · official $30.93 (match) · 106 history records