trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 36¢ | 37¢ | $3,940 | $4,010 | +$70 (+2%) |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5,118 | $3,838 | −$1,279 (-25%) |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $51 | $0 | −$51 (-100%) |
| Will Solana reach $130 in February? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $92 | $0 | −$92 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Solana reach $130 in February? | Feb 03 | $92 | −$92 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | Jan 19 | $52 | +$43 | +82% |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | Jan 14 | $47 | +$3 | +7% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 13 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Jan 13 | $53 | +$46 | +85% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 5 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 60% | 40% | -25.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.2% | 40% | -25.4% |
| 10% | -22.4% | 40% | -32.5% |
| 15% | -29.9% | 40% | -39.1% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 40% | -45.0% |