Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc536…7d39 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+6%) realized +$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$495
14 days+$573
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$22
sports 36% +$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.5% -6.4% 62% 62% +8.5%
≤30d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 60% -0.5%
≤90d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 60% -0.5%
all 10 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 60% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 60% -0.5%
10% -17.4% 60% -10.0%
15% -25.4% 50% -18.7%
20% -32.7% 30% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$209 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $607 +$158 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 −$114 -76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $206 +$148 +72%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$193 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$472 +93%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $264 −$260 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $188 +$78 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $436 −$261 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $303 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $330 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $304 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 17¢ $37 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $151 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $105 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $264 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $267 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $188 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 15¢ $175 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $334 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records