Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc53a…a613 other 15 markets active 5d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-14%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$56
crypto 4% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.9% +8.5% 70% 60% -22.2%
≤30d 10 +19.9% +8.5% 70% 60% -22.2%
≤90d 10 +19.9% +8.5% 70% 60% -22.2%
all 15 +8.6% -1.7% 53% 47% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 47% -23.1%
10% -11.1% 47% -30.5%
15% -19.7% 47% -37.2%
20% -27.6% 40% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage146d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $58 +$57 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $11 +$13 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +87%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Mar 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $58 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 94d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 94d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 140d
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease? BUY No 96¢ $4 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 140d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 141d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $1 141d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 147d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 148d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records