Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc53a…d59b other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$158 (-16%) realized −$154 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$156
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$183
crypto 32% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 25% -28.0%
≤30d 12 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 18 -13.4% -21.7% 44% 39% -26.1%
all 18 -13.4% -21.7% 44% 39% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 39% -26.1%
10% -29.2% 22% -33.2%
15% -36.0% 22% -39.6%
20% -42.3% 17% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage43d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$40 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $314 +$15 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $140 +$29 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 +$3 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$20 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $11 $0 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 +$18 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $47 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $188 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $170 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $140 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $140 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $144 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $0 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 53¢ $28 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $21 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $21 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 38d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 38d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.24 · official $42.24 (match) · 38 history records