Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc53b…7b2b crypto 264 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate43%114W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$30
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 20% -13.5%
≤30d 234 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 13% -15.2%
≤90d 264 -6.9% -15.7% 43% 15% -16.1%
all 264 -6.9% -15.7% 43% 15% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 15% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 6% -24.1%
15% -31.2% 1% -31.5%
20% -37.9% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses114 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage53d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1407 history records