Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C5 0xc542…7fe1 sports 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-0%) realized −$190 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%163W / 107L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$594est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,815
7 days−$937
14 days−$984
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$282
other 6% −$469
crypto 5% −$291
weather 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 42% -13.0%
≤30d 230 -11.1% -19.5% 60% 40% -10.2%
≤90d 270 -12.4% -20.8% 60% 39% -10.3%
all 270 -12.4% -20.8% 60% 39% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 39% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 21% -18.9%
15% -35.3% 14% -26.7%
20% -41.6% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$83 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses163 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$594
Open positions6
Markets (closed)270 / 276
History coverage31d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Fire Flux Esports 63¢ 70¢ $635 $700 +$65 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $11 +$3 (+37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs ex-RUBY 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $42 +$8 +19%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $285 +$15 +5%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $157 +$2 +2%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $1,416 −$728 -51%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 172.5 Jun 21 $512 −$512 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $554 −$548 -99%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $2,031 +$265 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $800 +$101 +13%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $770 +$101 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $591 −$585 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $350 +$149 +43%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $509 +$75 +15%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $1,784 +$214 +12%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $239 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $893 +$848 +95%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $540 −$540 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $2,173 −$674 -31%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $1,636 +$199 +12%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $429 +$232 +54%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,000 +$400 +40%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $596 +$24 +4%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $960 +$20 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $903 +$47 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $595 +$104 +18%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$13 +24%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $249 −$246 -99%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $30 +$9 +31%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $228 +$48 +21%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $111 −$8 -7%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $214 −$5 -2%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $272 −$21 -8%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $90 +$30 +33%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $239 +$22 +9%
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $77 +$23 +30%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $138 +$16 +12%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 16m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 32m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 32m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 33m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 33m
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 65¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 63¢ $488 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 39¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 70¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 70¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 70¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $721.01 · official $795.81 · 1389 history records