Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc543…ff22 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$4
other 15% +$1
politics 7% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 12 +1.2% -8.5% 42% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 6% -8.8%
all 32 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage476d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 48¢ 58¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $15 +$4 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $12 −$1 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $8 $0 -2%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelens Mar 20 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $9 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $23 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $11 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $23 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $26 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $38 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $35 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $30 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $30 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $31 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $22 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records