Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc547…e653 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$2
sports 30% −$2
politics 28% −$3
crypto 11% −$1
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.2% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -4.2% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -4.2% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage164d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $598 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $394 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 09 $499 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 9m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 55m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 7h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 8h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 11h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 15h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 15h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 16h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 16h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 18h
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $5 140d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $9 140d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $9 140d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $5 140d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $20 146d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $12 146d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $20 146d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $12 146d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $100 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.48 · official $158.48 (match) · 75 history records