Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc551…f00e weather 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%176W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$41
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 148 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 184 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses176 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage115d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 6? Jun 07 $68 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 23? May 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 23? May 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or below on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on May 19? May 20 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 13? May 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 9? May 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 08 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $157 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $93 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $93 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $158 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $155 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $160 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $66 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $162 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $155 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $164 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $157 8d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $161 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $96 11d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $68 11d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $152 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $162 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $150 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $156 13d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $153 15d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $131 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $167 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $161 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $148 19d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.29 · official $157.29 (match) · 393 history records