Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc556…9720 weather 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,601 (+5%) realized +$4,582 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%331W / 166L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$314
14 days+$461
30 days+$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +52.9% +38.3% 72% 61% +14.4%
≤30d 90 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 50% +1.7%
≤90d 338 +6.4% -3.7% 63% 32% -8.2%
all 497 +6.1% -4.0% 67% 33% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 33% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 19% -14.9%
15% -21.6% 12% -23.1%
20% -29.3% 9% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$4,582
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses331 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)497 / 499
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $186 $202 +$16 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 86¢ 100¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $169 +$34 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $177 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $80 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $181 +$99 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $64 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $57 −$40 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$57 +950%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $71 +$17 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $32 +$49 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $48 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $110 +$52 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $191 +$26 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $183 +$34 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $519 +$48 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$13 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$29 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $144 +$21 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 10 $55 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $138 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $133 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $11 +$10 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $213 +$39 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $58 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $38 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $31 +$17 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $504 +$141 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $131 +$17 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 2? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24? Jun 02 $16 −$13 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 31? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 24? Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30? Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 28? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 02 $57 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 02 $27 +$11 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $75 +$17 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 92¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $106 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $84 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 27h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? SELL Yes 58¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $94 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.18 · official $223.18 (match) · 3500 history records