trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 30% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 27 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 26% | 7% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 7% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 7% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 4% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 4% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $13 | −$1 | -6% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 20 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $38 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $69 | +$2 | +3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 23 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 21 | $33 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $19 | −$11 | -57% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 11 | $6 | +$8 | +120% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 11 | $16 | −$6 | -36% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Dec 11 | $17 | +$5 | +27% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 26 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 26 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 25 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Nov 19 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no | Nov 19 | $3 | $0 | -18% |
| Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? | Nov 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 24 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? | Oct 23 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | Oct 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 11 | $37 | +$4 | +10% |