Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc55b…ca2c sports 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-12%) realized −$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$11
other 32% −$34
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.6% -75.2% 0% 0% -83.1%
≤30d 4 -72.6% -75.2% 0% 0% -83.1%
≤90d 8 -29.3% -36.1% 25% 25% -29.5%
all 16 -21.4% -28.9% 25% 25% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 25% -23.2%
10% -35.7% 25% -30.5%
15% -41.9% 25% -37.2%
20% -47.6% 25% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage174d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -52%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $17 −$6 -38%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $25 +$15 +61%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $17 +$32 +194%
Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO? May 10 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $7 +$12 +177%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 08 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 03 $5 −$1 -19%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $4 +$7 +171%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $41 18d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 30d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 30d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai SELL Arnold Allen 87¢ $40 31d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Arnold Allen 53¢ $25 31d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 61¢ $49 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $17 38d
Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 95d
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C BUY Josh Emmett 19¢ $11 95d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Charles Oliveira 100¢ $19 101d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 101d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $7 101d
O/U 0.5 Rounds SELL Under 9¢ $2 101d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 14¢ $2 101d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 106d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 107d
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main SELL Kavanagh 99¢ $11 108d
Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 108d
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main BUY Kavanagh 36¢ $2 108d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 26¢ $1 108d
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main BUY Kavanagh 37¢ $2 108d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 33 history records