Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc55f…8dad other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$253 (+3%) realized +$265 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$842per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$986
7 days−$986
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$823
sports 32% +$927
crypto 1% +$51
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.4% -28.0% 50% 50% -79.3%
≤30d 9 -5.3% -14.3% 67% 67% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 64% 64% -8.0%
all 11 +0.2% -9.4% 64% 64% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 64% -8.0%
10% -18.0% 36% -16.8%
15% -26.0% 18% -24.8%
20% -33.2% 9% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$609 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage35d
Avg bet$842
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $96 $85 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 25 $101 −$14 -14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $92 +$20 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $83 +$9 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,014 −$1,001 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,421 −$1,421 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,613 +$806 +50%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $3,174 +$942 +30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,397 +$775 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 22 $102 +$51 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $98 1h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 54¢ $87 1h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 61¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $92 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $83 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,421 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,613 9d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 77¢ $3,174 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,385 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,013 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.77 · official $84.77 (match) · 24 history records