Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc560…37a2 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$48 (+11%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$74
crypto 12% +$15
finance 12% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +29.0% +16.7% 75% 75% +11.7%
≤30d 8 +29.0% +16.7% 75% 75% +11.7%
≤90d 8 +29.0% +16.7% 75% 75% +11.7%
all 9 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 67% -1.3%
10% -6.2% 67% -10.8%
15% -15.3% 56% -19.4%
20% -23.6% 22% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage121d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $44 32m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 9¢ $50 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records