Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc564…e89d sports 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,195 (-4%) realized −$3,195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%143W / 116L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day116.9pace
Fees−$1,382est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$643
7 days−$2,925
14 days−$3,731
30 days−$4,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$4,449
other 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -6.4% -15.4% 56% 46% -14.0%
≤30d 259 -12.0% -20.4% 55% 39% -13.6%
≤90d 259 -12.0% -20.4% 55% 39% -13.6%
all 259 -12.0% -20.4% 55% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 39% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 29% -21.9%
15% -35.0% 20% -29.4%
20% -41.4% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$140 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses143 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,382
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage16d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day116.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $145 −$6 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 −$5 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$497 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 −$63 -59%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$5 -6%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $44 +$7 +15%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 17 $66 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $444 +$129 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $24 +$24 +100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $293 +$127 +43%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 +$10 +118%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $224 +$16 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $359 −$354 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $144 +$455 +315%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $59 −$58 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $275 −$273 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,515 +$518 +34%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$3 -14%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $170 +$21 +13%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $178 +$81 +46%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) Jun 16 $299 −$113 -38%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $228 −$48 -21%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $316 −$32 -10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $128 +$60 +47%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $165 −$120 -73%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $590 +$173 +29%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $409 +$129 +32%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $600 +$86 +14%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $140 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $196 −$70 -36%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $275 +$55 +20%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $77 +$21 +27%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $91 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $146 +$4 +3%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $219 +$36 +17%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $152 −$92 -61%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $581 −$579 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,759 −$345 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,019 −$828 -81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $622 −$363 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $433 −$255 -59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $377 −$150 -40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $849 +$710 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $145 −$144 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $139 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $113 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 22¢ $42 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 22¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $194 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $81 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $107 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 51¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 51¢ $35 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 43¢ $44 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $145 5h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 64¢ $63 6h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 65¢ $66 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $200 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $54 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $80 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 76¢ $68 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 76¢ $8 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1914 history records