Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc566…f8d7 sports 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-1%) realized −$90 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%408W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$528
14 days+$499
30 days+$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$769
weather 9% −$2
other 4% −$85
culture 2% +$12
politics 2% +$2
crypto 1% −$134
tech 0% +$12
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +22.4% +10.7% 56% 54% +15.6%
≤30d 480 -1.6% -11.0% 63% 61% -2.4%
≤90d 557 -2.5% -11.7% 61% 59% -6.5%
all 723 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 55% -7.1%
10% -20.9% 48% -16.0%
15% -28.5% 40% -24.1%
20% -35.5% 28% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$30 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses408 / 315
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions3
Markets (closed)723 / 729
History coverage246d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 19¢ 1¢ $41 $2 −$39 (-96%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 293 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$69 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 +$47 +46%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $70 +$50 +72%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $30 +$100 +335%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $51 +$49 +96%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $95 −$32 -34%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $67 +$53 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $54 +$46 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $43 +$57 +133%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$29 +42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $42 +$108 +257%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $64 +$102 +159%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $26 +$74 +285%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $57 +$33 +58%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $36 +$26 +72%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $15 +$18 +124%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $64 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $54 +$46 +85%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $26 +$74 +285%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +70%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$16 +31%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $85 −$34 -40%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$36 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$17 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 6¢ $6 32m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 37m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 29¢ $35 38m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 42¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 58¢ $70 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 10h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 23¢ $6 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 23¢ $6 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 23¢ $18 11h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $51 12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 27¢ $32 12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 74¢ $74 12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 63¢ $63 13h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 7¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 7¢ $9 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 29¢ $28 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 29¢ $1 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 29¢ $0 13h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $12 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $9 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $12 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $12 14h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 46¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 36¢ $43 14h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 11¢ $16 16h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 42¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 42¢ $18 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $67 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.09 · official $60.09 (match) · 1612 history records