Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc569…63c6 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-6%) realized −$56 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$112
sports 10% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 33% -20.9%
≤30d 24 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 33% -20.9%
≤90d 24 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 33% -20.9%
all 24 -28.0% -34.8% 33% 33% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 33% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 33% -28.4%
15% -46.8% 33% -35.3%
20% -52.0% 29% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$116 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $73 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$46 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$43 +84%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$41 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $98 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.62 · official $20.62 (match) · 61 history records