Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc56e…1c34 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$732 (+226%) realized +$60 · open +$547
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$510
other 1% +$3
world 1% +$94
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+92.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +112.9% +92.6% 100% 100% +105.1%
≤30d 3 +112.9% +92.6% 100% 100% +105.1%
≤90d 3 +112.9% +92.6% 100% 100% +105.1%
all 3 +112.9% +92.6% 100% 100% +105.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +92.6% 100% +105.1%
10% ← realistic here +74.2% 100% +85.5%
15% +57.4% 100% +67.6%
20% +41.9% 100% +51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt +127% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$547
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)3 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 15¢ 50¢ $50 $164 +$114 (+228%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Up 17¢ 50¢ $40 $121 +$81 (+203%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 38¢ $2 $96 +$94 (+4712%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $50 +$50 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 27¢ 50¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 30¢ 50¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 3¢ 50¢ $2 $34 +$32 (+1583%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 35¢ 50¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 30¢ 50¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 3¢ 50¢ $1 $17 +$16 (+1583%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 3¢ 8¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+136%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 16¢ 50¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+216%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$46 +211%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$11 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $39 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 3¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $161 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $44 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $732.49 · official $732.49 (match) · 36 history records