Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc571…7c69 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$4
crypto 26% −$27
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 33% -47.1%
≤30d 6 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 33% -47.1%
≤90d 6 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 33% -47.1%
all 6 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 33% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 33% -47.1%
10% -46.1% 33% -52.2%
15% -51.3% 33% -56.8%
20% -56.1% 0% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$20 -48%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.12 · official $186.12 (match) · 18 history records