Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc571…5771 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$3
other 17% +$2
sports 5% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -8.6%
all 17 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -8.7%
10% -26.2% 0% -17.4%
15% -33.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -39.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage471d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $102 +$3 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $45 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $1 $0 -36%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $14 $0 +3%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 20 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $52 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $52 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $52 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $52 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $53 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $50 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 36h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $39 35d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $49 35d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes $1 354d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY Yes $1 360d
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $2 374d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 400d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY No 97¢ $1 427d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1 442d
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? SELL No 98¢ $15 459d
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? BUY No 95¢ $14 460d
Norfolk State vs. Florida SELL Florida 98¢ $15 461d
Norfolk State vs. Florida BUY Florida 99¢ $15 461d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? SELL No 86¢ $13 462d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 467d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? BUY No 85¢ $13 467d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records