Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc575…8821 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$616 (+25%) realized +$622 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days−$122
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$104
sports 41% +$503
world 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.5% +10.8% 100% 100% +10.8%
≤30d 15 -20.5% -28.0% 33% 33% +17.1%
≤90d 16 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% +22.2%
all 16 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 38% +22.2%
10% -30.7% 31% +10.5%
15% -37.4% 25% -0.2%
20% -43.5% 25% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$58 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized+$622
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage38d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $296 $298 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 19¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Yes $15 $1 −$14 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $42 −$40 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $112 −$10 -9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 31 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $204 +$462 +226%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $101 +$91 +90%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 20 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $301 +$32 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $283 +$176 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes $15 51m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 55m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 57m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $102 9d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions $1 10d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions $10 10d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions $10 10d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions SELL Zhejiang Lions $1 10d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions $21 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 14d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $298 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang BUY Xiyu Wang 19¢ $20 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 71¢ $101 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder $10 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 71¢ $134 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 52¢ $101 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $666 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 16d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 26d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 26d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 30d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 33d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 35d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 37d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $283 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.45 · official $645.57 (match) · 54 history records