Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc576…49bc sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,984 (-13%) realized −$1,972 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$80
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,172
other 13% −$434
world 3% −$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +44.2% +30.5% 50% 50% +57.9%
≤90d 23 -34.6% -40.8% 22% 22% -26.7%
all 41 -23.0% -30.3% 24% 20% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 20% -21.5%
10% -37.0% 20% -29.0%
15% -43.1% 20% -35.8%
20% -48.7% 15% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$132 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$1,972
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage119d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Christian Walker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 3¢ 3¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $28 $24 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $122 +$231 +188%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Apr 25 $186 −$183 -98%
Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $186 −$183 -98%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Apr 23 $108 −$2 -2%
Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5 Apr 22 $198 −$194 -98%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 09 $186 −$183 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy Apr 08 $510 −$17 -3%
Phoenix: Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux Apr 08 $396 −$396 -100%
Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $410 −$410 -100%
Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 9.5 Apr 08 $178 −$178 -100%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Nicolas Jarry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $191 −$191 -100%
Phoenix: Terence Atmane vs Darwin Blanch Apr 08 $274 −$274 -100%
Malik Monk: Points O/U 14.5 Apr 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Apr 08 $85 −$85 -100%
Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 Apr 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 06 $1,100 −$37 -3%
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $28 +$21 +75%
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Peyton Stearns Apr 02 $373 −$10 -3%
Linette vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 30 $256 −$7 -3%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) Mar 29 $660 +$769 +116%
Blackhawks vs. Flyers Mar 28 $375 +$185 +49%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Mar 28 $275 +$245 +89%
Sao Paulo: Gonzalo Bueno vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Mar 25 $595 −$12 -2%
Naples: Saba Purtseladze vs Michele Ribecai Mar 24 $85 +$40 +46%
Miami Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Antonia Ruzic Mar 24 $380 +$289 +76%
Kartal vs. Stearns: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 17 $219 −$4 -2%
Sierra vs. Cristian: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 17 $209 −$8 -4%
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian Mar 17 $618 −$14 -2%
Murcia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Javier Barranco Cosano Mar 16 $810 −$31 -4%
Miami Open: Julia Grabher vs Maria Sakkari Mar 16 $402 −$147 -37%
Zadar: Maxim Mrva vs Alex Molcan Mar 16 $377 −$7 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 10 $410 −$410 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-11.5) Mar 10 $238 −$238 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Michael Zheng vs Arthur Cazaux Mar 05 $604 −$45 -7%
Antalya 2: Moyuka Uchijima vs Ada Kumru Mar 05 $794 +$56 +7%
Antalya 2: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Mar 03 $255 +$210 +82%
Hersonissos: Maximus Jones vs Tom Gentzsch Mar 03 $620 −$12 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Kukushkin vs. Gaston: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 27 $164 −$3 -2%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1,500 +$50 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Christian Walker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 3¢ $46 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $81 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 14d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 34¢ $122 33d
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 38¢ $186 60d
Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $186 61d
Mark Williams: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $198 63d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 50¢ $108 64d
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $186 76d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy BUY Sara Bejlek 51¢ $510 79d
Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 39¢ $140 81d
Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 42¢ $178 82d
Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $85 82d
Malik Monk: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 32¢ $98 82d
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,100 83d
Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $410 84d
Credit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Peyton Stearns BUY Peyton Stearns 51¢ $373 86d
Linette vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $256 87d
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) BUY Arizona Wildcats 46¢ $660 88d
Blackhawks vs. Flyers SELL Flyers 59¢ $93 91d
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 53¢ $275 91d
Blackhawks vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 60¢ $375 91d
Sao Paulo: Gonzalo Bueno vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 51¢ $595 92d
Naples: Saba Purtseladze vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 68¢ $85 93d
Miami Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Gabriela Ruse 57¢ $380 98d
Sierra vs. Cristian: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 49¢ $201 99d
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian SELL Jaqueline Cristian 50¢ $604 99d
Mattia Bellucci vs. Nicolas Jarry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 34¢ $191 99d
Miami Open: Solana Sierra vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 51¢ $618 100d
Kartal vs. Stearns: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $219 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.79 · official $61.94 (match) · 109 history records