Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc578…cd85 weather 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$198 (+3%) realized +$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate73%33W / 12L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% $0
other 30% −$2
world 15% +$188
sports 13% +$13
tech 4% +$1
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +1.7% -8.0% 73% 6% -6.2%
all 45 +1.3% -8.4% 73% 4% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -7.0%
10% -17.2% 2% -15.9%
15% -25.2% 2% -24.0%
20% -32.5% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.87 per $1 lost it wins $34.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses33 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 51
History coverage137d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 22? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 28? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $505 +$187 +37%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $392 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $5 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $394 +$1 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $365 +$3 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $64 +$10 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $495 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $763 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $491 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $768 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $452 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 16 $21 $0 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $173 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February? Mar 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $107 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $316 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 15 $75 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January? Feb 15 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 25d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 99¢ $1 50d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $5 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $505 55d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $37 55d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $0 56d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $40 56d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $51 56d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $39 56d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $17 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.38 · official $49.38 (match) · 320 history records