Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc57b…53e3 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$1
other 14% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 18% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 18% 6% -9.7%
all 36 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage461d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $77 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 14 $8 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 29 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $12 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $43 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $44 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $45 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $11 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $21 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $13 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records