Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc57c…803f world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$3
politics 30% −$8
sports 19% +$1
other 14% −$2
economics 4% $0
culture 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 55% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 59 -0.8% -10.3% 42% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -2.7% -12.0% 41% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -20.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 47
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage521d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $31 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $31 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $18 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $70 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $90 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $15 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $31 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $10 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $23 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $23 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $14 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $16 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 33h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 35h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $7 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $3 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $20 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $31 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $23 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.21 · official $4.00 (match) · 282 history records