Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc581…6d06 crypto 411 markets active 0h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$779 (-10%) realized −$788 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%161W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days−$272
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$615
sports 12% −$163
other 5% −$63
finance 4% −$84
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% −$10
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.6% +11.9% 62% 62% +15.5%
≤30d 111 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 31% -21.1%
≤90d 307 -13.4% -21.6% 39% 36% -20.9%
all 409 -16.2% -24.2% 39% 36% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -21.6%
10% -31.4% 33% -29.1%
15% -38.1% 27% -35.9%
20% -44.1% 20% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses161 / 248
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)409 / 411
History coverage378d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $201 $211 +$10 (+5%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$8 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$7 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$10 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $13 −$11 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$33 +63%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $72 +$32 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $70 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $60 −$59 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $52 −$51 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$32 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$3 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $82 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 9m
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $212 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $14 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 50m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 18¢ $9 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 30¢ $16 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.60 · official $220.60 (match) · 1160 history records