Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc585…188f
world · 176 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$56 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$175
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses105 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions30
Markets (closed)146 / 176
History coverage90d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 30 History 146 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$25
14 days+$12
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 87¢ 80¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+45%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 84¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 81¢ 87¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$3 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +154%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $35 +$1 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$2 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 09 $2 $0 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $21 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$3 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$3 +51%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$5 +362%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $3 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $44 +$8 +18%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $14 +$6 +43%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $4 +$4 +86%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 +$23 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $20 +$4 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$3 -23%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $26 −$8 -29%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $18 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? May 31 $21 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: NS Club vs TPaBoMaH Club - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $7 +$3 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $23 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $47 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 79% +$27
other 10% −$2
finance 4% −$2
crypto 3% +$23
politics 2% +$2
sports 2% +$3
tech 0% +$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 8h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 13h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 23h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 23h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 25h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $66 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $60 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $7 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 27% -17.6%
≤30d 94 +4.3% -5.7% 69% 33% -6.9%
≤90d 146 +5.9% -4.1% 72% 29% -7.0%
all 146 +5.9% -4.1% 72% 29% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 29% -7.0%
10% -13.3% 16% -15.9%
15% -21.7% 13% -24.0%
20% -29.4% 9% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.11 · official $175.11 (match) · 574 history records