Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc58a…5b57 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,692 (-28%) realized −$1,692 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%48W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$5
sports 29% −$1,708
other 26% +$15
world 4% +$1
crypto 1% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +0.4% -9.1% 92% 6% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -35.9%
10% -17.8% 6% -42.0%
15% -25.8% 6% -47.6%
20% -33.0% 4% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$435 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$1,692
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses48 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage201d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 18 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $210 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $7.00? May 22 $210 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 May 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $8.50? May 12 $149 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, May 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 May 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 21 to April May 02 $210 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $130 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Apr 23 $211 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 14 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April Apr 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr Apr 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Apr 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 29 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 25 $178 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 19 $180 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Czech Republic record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $66 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8AM ET Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? Jan 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 27 $22 +$18 +82%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo launch a token by December 31? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Abstract launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Variational launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will StandX launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mali vs. Zambia end in a draw? Dec 25 $7 +$18 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 16d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 23d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 23d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 26d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 26d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $210 34d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $200 36d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 BUY No 100¢ $56 40d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, BUY No 100¢ $56 42d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $5 43d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $8.50? BUY No 100¢ $149 43d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 BUY No 100¢ $110 47d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 47d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 21 to April BUY No 100¢ $210 51d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 56d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April BUY No 100¢ $50 56d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri BUY No 100¢ $211 64d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 BUY No 100¢ $200 71d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 27 to April BUY No 100¢ $100 77d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March BUY No 100¢ $140 81d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March BUY No 100¢ $50 81d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March BUY No 100¢ $180 85d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar BUY No 99¢ $178 90d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY No 99¢ $180 93d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 95d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes $5 95d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $66 100d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 BUY No 100¢ $100 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.72 · official $199.62 (match) · 102 history records