Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc594…7738 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+5%) realized +$181 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$188
other 45% +$283
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 67% 67% -31.9%
≤90d 30 +8.2% -2.1% 37% 37% +7.8%
all 39 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 31% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -5.8%
10% -29.1% 26% -14.8%
15% -36.0% 18% -23.0%
20% -42.3% 18% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$56 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage139d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 +$9 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 +$6 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $425 +$298 +70%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 20 $250 +$172 +69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $146 −$142 -97%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $206 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 09 $5 −$2 -43%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $137 +$88 +65%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $264 +$218 +82%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $53 +$146 +276%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $51 +$362 +710%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 10 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $40 +$293 +732%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Mar 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Feb 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Feb 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Rio Open: Tomas Barrios vs Matteo Berrettini Feb 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifi Feb 11 $82 +$25 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $63 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 98¢ $62 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $53 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $41 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $42 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $36 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $29 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $35 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $425 35d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL No 85¢ $422 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 7¢ $76 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 12¢ $70 50d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 50d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 50d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 60¢ $137 51d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 55d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 39¢ $43 55d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 39¢ $25 55d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 55d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 55d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 55d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 59d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $66 59d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $57 68d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 59 history records