Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc595…994d other 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,317 (+7%) realized +$1,317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate38%87W / 145L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day66.8pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$52
14 days+$83
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$28
sports 31% +$114
world 3% +$192
crypto 1% +$380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -42.3% -47.8% 29% 26% -8.8%
≤30d 215 -10.9% -19.4% 37% 22% -5.2%
≤90d 232 -12.4% -20.8% 38% 24% -5.2%
all 232 -12.4% -20.8% 38% 24% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 24% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 18% -14.3%
15% -35.3% 14% -22.5%
20% -41.6% 11% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$14 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$1,317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses87 / 145
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions2
Markets (closed)232 / 234
History coverage33d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day66.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $140 −$30 -21%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $52 +$30 +57%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $14 −$4 -26%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $141 +$26 +19%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $185 −$86 -47%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $56 +$56 +100%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. América FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $24 −$23 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $48 −$5 -10%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $64 +$94 +145%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $87 −$7 -8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $39 −$4 -9%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $87 −$28 -32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $34 −$5 -13%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 +$10 +66%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $127 −$8 -6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $45 +$20 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$30 +60%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $13 $0 -3%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $474 −$21 -4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $114 +$35 +31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $65 −$31 -47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $169 +$53 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $119 +$71 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $39 −$38 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $244 −$100 -41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$6 +6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$2 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $765 +$56 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $451 +$17 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $140 −$14 -10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $62 +$3 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $208 +$23 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $256 +$24 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $103 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $7 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $0 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $8 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $9 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $9 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $9 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $9 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $1 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 19¢ $27 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $2 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $7 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $0 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $0 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $168 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $14 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $6 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $7 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.91 · official $150.42 (match) · 2263 history records