Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc597…c695
sports · 444 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$261 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$259 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses187 / 217
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions40
Markets (closed)404 / 444
History coverage47d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 40 History 404 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$134
14 days−$190
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 41¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+141%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 62¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Over 67¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 88¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Yes 97¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 67¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? No 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$8 +291%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +45%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream? Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on I Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $3 +$10 +319%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -55%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$180
world 5% −$69
other 4% −$11
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 74¢ $1 9m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 87¢ $1 34m
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 39m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 93¢ $1 1h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $1 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 71¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 4h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 94¢ $1 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 7h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 81¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $3 10h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 77¢ $1 10h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 71¢ $1 10h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 44¢ $1 10h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 88¢ $1 11h
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? SELL No 75¢ $2 12h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 42¢ $2 12h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 100¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $4 12h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 77¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $3 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 68¢ $3 14h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 82¢ $1 14h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 85¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $3 15h
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 39% -19.6%
≤30d 399 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 42% -22.0%
≤90d 404 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 41% -21.9%
all 404 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 41% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 41% -21.9%
10% -23.6% 33% -29.4%
15% -31.0% 27% -36.2%
20% -37.8% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.71 · official $43.71 (match) · 916 history records