Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc598…a557 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 29% $0
politics 13% −$3
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 46 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage350d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 49¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $81 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $71 +$3 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $80 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $123 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Aug 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 15 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 Jul 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $43 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $6 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.67 · official $40.67 (match) · 146 history records