Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc59c…6b58 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-17%) realized −$419 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%32W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$65
14 days+$65
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$388
other 4% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +30.9% +18.5% 62% 62% +6.2%
≤30d 31 -21.1% -28.7% 39% 39% -43.9%
≤90d 79 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 41% -25.7%
all 79 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 41% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 41% -25.7%
10% -31.5% 41% -32.8%
15% -38.1% 41% -39.3%
20% -44.2% 41% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$33 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$419
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses32 / 47
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage39d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 10¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$38 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$35 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $20 +$27 +133%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 +$39 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $22 +$15 +67%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $15 +$13 +86%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $14 +$10 +73%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 +$15 +74%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $13 +$21 +158%
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $13 −$12 -99%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $11 +$15 +141%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $14 −$14 -98%
SD Huesca vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Albacete Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5 May 24 $20 +$14 +68%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $16 −$16 -98%
FK Jablonec vs. FC Slovan Liberec: O/U 2.5 May 24 $20 +$16 +81%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 May 24 $24 −$24 -99%
HNK Rijeka vs. HNK Gorica: O/U 2.5 May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
NK Varaždin vs. NK Istra 1961: O/U 2.5 May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $44 −$44 -99%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $55 −$55 -99%
NK Osijek vs. NK Slaven Belupo: O/U 2.5 May 22 $28 −$28 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $28 −$27 -98%
Gangwon FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $39 −$39 -98%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Dinamo 1948 vs. FC CFR 1907 Cluj: O/U 2.5 May 16 $31 −$30 -98%
KFC Komárno vs. FC Tatran Prešov: O/U 2.5 May 16 $36 −$35 -99%
Incheon United FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $31 +$41 +134%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5 May 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $41 +$36 +89%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 14 $41 −$41 -98%
FK Kudrivka vs. FK Rukh Lviv: O/U 2.5 May 14 $70 +$38 +54%
EC Juventude vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 May 14 $31 +$48 +158%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 13 $39 +$81 +206%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $43 −$42 -98%
SK Slavia Praha vs. FK Jablonec: O/U 2.5 May 13 $32 +$20 +61%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $33 +$29 +86%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $30 −$29 -98%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5 May 13 $35 −$34 -98%
SC Internacional vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 13 $34 +$30 +86%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 12 $30 +$35 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $35 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $33 30h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $30 41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 44h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $24 47h
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda BUY BC Neptunas Klaipeda 42¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $26 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $29 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 3d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. SELL Panathinaikos 100¢ $28 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 4d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Panathinaikos 53¢ $15 4d
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 5d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $14 5d
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 5d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 5d
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $13 6d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $13 6d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 6d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $11 6d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid BUY Real Madrid 26¢ $14 22d
SD Huesca vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 22d
Albacete Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 22d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $16 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.64 · official $38.64 (match) · 121 history records