Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc59f…954e sports 349 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$756 (-2%) realized −$826 · open +$70
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%162W / 186L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$623est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$459
14 days+$291
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$957
other 6% −$1,370
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +28.6% +16.4% 68% 68% +7.7%
≤30d 118 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 52% -4.2%
≤90d 348 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 45% -13.9%
all 348 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 45% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 45% -13.9%
10% -22.3% 43% -22.2%
15% -29.8% 39% -29.7%
20% -36.7% 34% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$115 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$826
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$623
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 349
History coverage82d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 47¢ 100¢ $62 $132 +$70 (+113%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $149 +$170 +114%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $150 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $115 −$113 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $92 +$68 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $59 +$70 +119%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$71 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $90 +$69 +76%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $109 +$105 +97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $184 +$69 +37%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $112 +$70 +62%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $72 +$70 +97%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $104 +$75 +72%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $362 +$77 +21%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $168 −$166 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $60 +$71 +119%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $111 +$77 +69%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 +$71 +152%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $78 +$59 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $226 +$140 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $86 +$141 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $87 −$85 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $57 +$71 +124%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $182 −$178 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $144 +$105 +73%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $63 +$78 +124%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $50 +$50 +100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $573 −$568 -99%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $61 +$76 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $111 +$149 +134%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 11 $81 +$138 +170%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 10 $151 −$149 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $102 +$212 +208%
Map Handicap: MSC (-1.5) vs AaB Bulls (+1.5) Jun 09 $45 +$56 +124%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $90 −$89 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) Jun 09 $56 +$39 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $53 +$40 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $41 +$34 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $27 +$42 +156%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $49 −$30 -61%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs RoundsGG (+1.5) Jun 08 $53 −$52 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 08 $136 −$134 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $22 −$22 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $74 +$59 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $149 25h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $150 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $83 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $32 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $49 47h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $59 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $90 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $56 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $109 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $3 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $14 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $70 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $24 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $132 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $6 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 49¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $112 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 35¢ $184 2d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $75 2d
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 57¢ $104 4d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 50¢ $72 4d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $55 4d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $362 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $124 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $168 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $60 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 58¢ $111 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.85 · official $131.85 (match) · 708 history records