Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5a2…9981 politics 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$867 (+5%) realized +$599 · open +$268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%41W / 31L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$312
politics 25% +$455
other 22% +$303
crypto 1% −$97
tech 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 7 +26.2% +14.2% 100% 43% +8.4%
≤90d 13 +14.3% +3.4% 92% 38% +8.7%
all 72 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 29% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 29% -5.7%
10% -30.4% 22% -14.7%
15% -37.1% 19% -22.9%
20% -43.3% 10% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$57 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$4,722
Realized+$599
Unrealized+$268
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses41 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)72 / 81
History coverage698d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,456 $1,564 +$108 (+7%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $1,262 $1,382 +$120 (+10%)
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $480 $479 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 74¢ $350 $352 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 94¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $244 $249 +$5 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $212 $223 +$11 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 56¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $417 +$24 +6%
Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $146 +$10 +7%
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $162 +$11 +7%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $57 +$58 +102%
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 07 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $417 +$17 +4%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $507 +$235 +46%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 16 $40 +$15 +38%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $600 +$296 +49%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $89 +$5 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 04 $985 +$74 +8%
Will Green Left win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Mar 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Naleraq win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the Mar 25 $100 +$3 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Mar 23 $977 +$27 +3%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 20 $100 +$47 +47%
Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldo Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the blue bloc win between 75 and 77 seats in the Norwegian electi Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Mar 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 16 ET? Mar 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 18 $30 +$26 +87%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 17 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Mar 17 $216 +$39 +18%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 17 $600 +$250 +42%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Mar 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Mar 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in t Mar 02 $92 +$2 +2%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31? Jan 19 $1,400 +$47 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jan 07 $200 −$9 -4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 02 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 02 $59 +$41 +70%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $1,032 +$70 +7%
Will Russia capture Uspenivka by October 31? Nov 24 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 03 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 22 $390 +$85 +22%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30? Oct 06 $271 +$15 +6%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by September 30? Oct 06 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30? Oct 06 $400 +$193 +48%
Will PAS win by greater than >16% of the vote? Sep 27 $174 −$1 -1%
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Sep 22 $109 −$67 -61%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Sep 20 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the blue bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian electi Sep 16 $140 +$2 +1%
Which Bloc Wins most seats in Norway election? Sep 16 $434 +$99 +23%
Will the blue bloc win between 72 and 74 seats in the Norwegian electi Sep 08 $20 −$4 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $90 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $350 1h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $441 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1,262 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $50 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $10 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $300 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $244 14d
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den BUY Yes 89¢ $100 29d
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den BUY Yes 90¢ $100 39d
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY No 68¢ $506 50d
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY No 94¢ $162 65d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL Yes 6¢ $55 65d
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY Yes 49¢ $55 67d
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 67d
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY No 64¢ $1 67d
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 67d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1,256 77d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $985 90d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $984 90d
Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY No 94¢ $146 92d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL Yes 8¢ $147 92d
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY No 96¢ $377 92d
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY No 95¢ $40 92d
Will Naleraq win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the BUY No 98¢ $100 94d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 67¢ $600 95d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 95d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 95d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 95d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after BUY Yes 4¢ $30 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,721.77 · official $4,721.77 (match) · 190 history records