Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5a4…7bcb other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$15
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$4
other 38% +$10
politics 18% $0
world 4% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 20% -1.6%
≤30d 14 +6.9% -3.3% 71% 36% -3.3%
≤90d 15 +5.6% -4.5% 67% 33% -3.4%
all 17 +5.5% -4.5% 71% 29% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 29% -3.4%
10% -13.7% 12% -12.6%
15% -22.0% 12% -21.1%
20% -29.7% 12% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.06 per $1 lost it wins $7.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage141d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $64 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 92¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 20 $29 +$3 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 20 $31 +$2 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $55 +$8 +15%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 −$1 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $2 $0 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $12 $0 -1%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 30 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 30 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -13%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $55 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $32 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $64 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $68 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $16 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $29 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $31 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $55 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $1 13d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $5 13d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $35 13d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY San Francisco Giants 76¢ $1 21d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 21d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $18 21d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $18 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $2 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $2 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $1 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $1 40d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 40d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.22 · official $203.22 (match) · 77 history records