Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5aa…40dd sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$124 · open +$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,005per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$575
other 40% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.4% +16.2% 100% 100% +16.2%
≤30d 1 +28.4% +16.2% 100% 100% +16.2%
≤90d 1 +28.4% +16.2% 100% 100% +16.2%
all 1 +28.4% +16.2% 100% 100% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.2% 100% +16.2%
10% ← realistic here +5.0% 100% +5.0%
15% -5.1% 0% -5.1%
20% -14.4% 0% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$447 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,522
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,005
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,400 $1,388 −$12 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 51¢ 60¢ $810 $938 +$128 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $1,576 +$447 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 60¢ $506 17m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 42¢ $305 44m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $10 49m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 99¢ $2,018 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 56¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 76¢ $1,576 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,521.85 · official $2,521.85 (match) · 9 history records