Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc5ab…8bca crypto 406 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52,057 (+167%) realized +$52,057 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%175W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day142.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -12.5% -20.9% 42% 39% -15.5%
≤30d 409 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 38% -11.8%
≤90d 409 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 38% -11.8%
all 409 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 38% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 34% -20.2%
15% -28.9% 31% -27.9%
20% -35.9% 26% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$58 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52,057
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses175 / 234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)409 / 406
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day142.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 409 Trades
no open positions (209 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $126 −$121 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $421 +$58 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $153 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $106 +$36 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $185 −$177 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $232 +$46 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $140 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $259 +$102 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $192 −$188 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $119 −$116 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $109 +$207 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $114 +$63 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $157 −$152 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $87 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $195 −$193 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$157 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $268 −$47 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $171 −$22 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $139 +$123 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $141 +$93 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $184 +$28 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $157 −$149 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $89 +$41 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$63 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $141 −$137 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$52 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $234 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $245 +$179 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $22 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $208 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $55 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $53 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records