Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5ab…c22e sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$144 (+10%) realized +$241 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$220
other 8% +$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.3% +26.1% 44% 44% +9.7%
≤30d 9 +39.3% +26.1% 44% 44% +9.7%
≤90d 9 +39.3% +26.1% 44% 44% +9.7%
all 9 +39.3% +26.1% 44% 44% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.1% 44% +9.7%
10% ← realistic here +14.0% 44% -0.8%
15% +3.0% 44% -10.4%
20% -7.1% 33% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$104 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko Dmitry Popko 21¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $168 −$166 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 29 $102 −$37 -37%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $185 +$95 +52%
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $205 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $80 −$78 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $113 +$363 +322%
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jun 29 $67 +$154 +232%
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 29 $322 +$149 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko BUY Dmitry Popko 21¢ $100 46m
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 46¢ $168 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 19¢ $65 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 29¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 4¢ $41 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 12¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito SELL Dayana Yastremska 88¢ $292 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Dayana Yastremska 9¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 49¢ $241 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 20¢ $102 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 3h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 70¢ $476 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $113 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 72¢ $221 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 21¢ $67 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Hanne Vandewinkel 17¢ $138 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 12¢ $103 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Claire Liu 79¢ $333 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Claire Liu 51¢ $219 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.24 (match) · 21 history records