Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5b1…e904 sports 549 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,696 (+6%) realized +$7,110 · open −$414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%304W / 237L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Fees−$1,779est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$373
7 days−$15
14 days+$2,055
30 days+$2,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,565
other 1% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 43% -9.6%
≤30d 263 +6.8% -3.4% 56% 45% -6.1%
≤90d 541 +6.9% -3.3% 56% 44% -6.2%
all 541 +6.9% -3.3% 56% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 44% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 41% -15.1%
15% -21.0% 38% -23.3%
20% -28.7% 38% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$91 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$832
Realized+$7,110
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses304 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,779
Open positions8
Markets (closed)541 / 549
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 60¢ 56¢ $240 $222 −$18 (-8%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 44¢ 44¢ $176 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $147 $139 −$7 (-5%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 43¢ 40¢ $129 $122 −$8 (-6%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 47¢ 46¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 61¢ 12¢ $244 $50 −$194 (-80%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 6¢ $215 $27 −$187 (-87%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $225 +$275 +122%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $189 +$111 +59%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 18 $38 +$69 +181%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $235 +$128 +55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $135 +$165 +122%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $229 +$37 +16%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $150 +$150 +100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 +$112 +127%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $225 +$275 +122%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$14 +201%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $224 +$176 +79%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $210 +$290 +138%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 +$377 +307%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $222 −$222 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 17 $106 +$94 +89%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $215 −$212 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $212 +$188 +89%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $200 +$200 +100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $105 +$95 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $147 +$49 +33%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $493 +$10 +2%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $171 −$168 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $183 −$180 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $97 −$96 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $156 −$8 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $136 −$136 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $113 −$110 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $161 −$159 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $265 +$235 +89%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $76 +$124 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $137 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $13 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $27 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $100 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $5 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $111 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $94 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY No 52¢ $71 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY No 52¢ $2 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY No 52¢ $57 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $88 5h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $166 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $43 5h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $74 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $104 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 43¢ $129 5h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $189 5h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $170 6h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $75 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $137 7h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $1 20h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $2 21h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $36 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $135 22h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 35¢ $133 23h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $85 24h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 64¢ $53 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.71 · official $829.49 (match) · 3500 history records