Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc5b2…b87d crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$165 (+1%) realized +$1,371 · open −$1,206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,845
7 days−$1,996
14 days−$2,316
30 days+$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$27
other 5% −$507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -40.8% -46.4% 6% 6% -66.1%
≤30d 50 +7.8% -2.5% 20% 20% -18.0%
≤90d 56 +2.8% -7.0% 21% 21% -18.4%
all 56 +2.8% -7.0% 21% 21% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 21% -18.4%
10% -15.9% 20% -26.2%
15% -24.0% 20% -33.4%
20% -31.4% 20% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$657 vs −$164 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized+$1,371
Unrealized−$1,206
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage32d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $941 $405 −$536 (-57%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $205 $98 −$106 (-52%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $308 $32 −$276 (-90%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $190 $24 −$166 (-87%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $110 $22 −$88 (-80%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 17 $354 −$354 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $586 −$586 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $650 −$650 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $126 +$1,069 +848%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $138 −$130 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $121 −$114 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $600 −$564 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $4 +$16 +383%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $266 −$250 -94%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $157 −$147 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 08 $259 −$101 -39%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 9? Jun 08 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 08 $96 +$201 +209%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,049 +$290 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$96 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $226 −$212 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $56 −$53 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $278 −$261 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $266 −$250 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $266 −$250 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $333 −$313 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,156 +$2,308 +200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $212 −$199 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 06 $24 +$58 +248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $191 −$179 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $78 −$75 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $209 −$200 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $266 −$250 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $107 +$3,743 +3504%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $37 +$58 +158%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $61 −$57 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $143 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $95 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $90 19h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $53 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $144 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $32 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 24h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $131 28h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $56 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $224 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,195 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $99 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $138 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $213 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $437 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $121 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $160 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $384 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 8¢ $426 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $160 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.13 · official $643.72 (match) · 146 history records