Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5b5…1bce other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-3%) realized −$78 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$140
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 57% 57% -14.2%
≤30d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 57% 57% -14.2%
≤90d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 57% 57% -14.2%
all 7 +3.6% -6.3% 57% 57% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 57% -14.2%
10% -15.3% 43% -22.4%
15% -23.4% 14% -29.9%
20% -30.9% 14% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$150 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $122 $119 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $399 −$342 -86%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 −$107 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $285 +$68 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $389 +$49 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $315 +$74 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $195 +$120 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $58 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 3¢ $58 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $399 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $386 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $212 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 66¢ $179 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 79¢ $354 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $285 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $285 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $439 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $389 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $239 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $163 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.91 · official $120.75 · 22 history records