Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5b9…539b other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$621 (-7%) realized −$713 · open +$92
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day57.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$790
tech 27% +$21
world 24% +$57
sports 5% −$17
politics 2% +$94
economics 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.8% +8.4% 69% 50% -33.6%
≤30d 16 +19.8% +8.4% 69% 50% -33.6%
≤90d 16 +19.8% +8.4% 69% 50% -33.6%
all 16 +19.8% +8.4% 69% 50% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 50% -33.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 44% -40.0%
15% -11.5% 38% -45.8%
20% -20.1% 25% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$220 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,946
Realized−$713
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions42
Markets (closed)16 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day57.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $657 $685 +$28 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $493 $496 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $333 $387 +$54 (+16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $313 $326 +$13 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 63¢ 72¢ $177 $201 +$24 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $195 $199 +$4 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $137 $148 +$11 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $135 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $164 $124 −$39 (-24%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $95 $104 +$9 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $90 $98 +$9 (+10%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 88¢ 87¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No 80¢ 80¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 46¢ 52¢ $69 $79 +$10 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 98¢ 96¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 76¢ $42 $38 −$3 (-8%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $36 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 59¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Jun 28 $424 +$1 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 27 $8 +$1 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $12 +$8 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $130 +$5 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $6 +$2 +38%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $43 +$19 +44%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $1,770 −$750 -42%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 24, 2026? Jun 25 $4 +$6 +127%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$13 +120%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $40 +$84 +212%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$110 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 92¢ $420 3m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 4m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 20¢ $2 6m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 13m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 24m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 92¢ $201 40m
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 2h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 98¢ $42 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 2h
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 3h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,946.45 · official $3,946.46 (match) · 294 history records