Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5bd…ceaa world 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,570 (+7%) realized +$6,653 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate53%81W / 73L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day101.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$12,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,881
7 days+$6,774
14 days+$7,776
30 days+$7,766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$6,346
crypto 8% +$1,286
politics 6% +$207
other 4% +$112
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% +$42
sports 0% +$5
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +9.2% -1.2% 45% 21% +11.4%
≤30d 147 +15.6% +4.6% 53% 24% +6.7%
≤90d 154 +14.1% +3.3% 53% 23% +5.9%
all 154 +14.1% +3.3% 53% 23% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 23% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 15% -4.3%
15% -15.6% 11% -13.5%
20% -23.9% 8% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$54 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$12,087
Realized+$6,653
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions65
Markets (closed)154 / 190
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$469
Trades / day101.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,941 $1,976 +$34 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,086 $1,116 +$30 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $853 $862 +$9 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $456 $500 +$44 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $495 $500 +$5 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $488 $498 +$10 (+2%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $481 $488 +$7 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $437 $482 +$45 (+10%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $403 $424 +$21 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $416 $420 +$4 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $487 $411 −$76 (-16%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 59¢ 92¢ $211 $331 +$121 (+57%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $322 $331 +$9 (+3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $284 $280 −$3 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $263 $265 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $240 $255 +$14 (+6%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $228 $239 +$11 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $220 $237 +$17 (+8%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $198 $204 +$6 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $192 $196 +$4 (+2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $127 $190 +$63 (+50%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $185 $184 −$1 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $211 $162 −$48 (-23%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $127 $130 +$3 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $138 $126 −$12 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -104%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -102%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $155 −$181 -116%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $30 −$59 -196%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $613 −$44 -7%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $1,144 −$117 -10%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $49 −$22 -45%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $37 +$16 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $66 −$7 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $2,693 +$4,726 +176%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$17 +74%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1,748 +$74 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $214 −$82 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $723 +$107 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7,018 +$1,580 +22%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,749 +$252 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $161 +$13 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,083 +$592 +55%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $37 −$4 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $252 +$9 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $11 +$299 +2806%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $236 −$3 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,916 −$94 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $88 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,815 +$431 +24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $180 +$31 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $366 −$99 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $133 +$12 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 −$11 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $384 +$53 +14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $2,337 −$214 -9%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $69 14m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $68 14m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 20m
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 23m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 23m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 23m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 23m
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 25m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 25m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 85¢ $623 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 15¢ $100 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $1 45m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $2 45m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $1 45m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $1 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 22¢ $49 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $5 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $1 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $1 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $2 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $5 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 23¢ $77 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,087.20 · official $12,084.25 (match) · 3500 history records