Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5c3…9b45 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$150 (-16%) realized −$148 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 43% -25.5%
≤30d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 43% -25.5%
≤90d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 43% -25.5%
all 7 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 43% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 43% -25.5%
10% -29.5% 43% -32.6%
15% -36.3% 43% -39.1%
20% -42.6% 43% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$130 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 36¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $233 +$227 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $25 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $132 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.87 · official $47.87 (match) · 14 history records